Well, I don’t relish raining on conservatives’ celebratory parade after Tuesday’s primary victories here in Nevada, but a commitment to fair analysis requires that I do just that.
Though from one point of view conservatives “won” with the ousting of three tax-raising Republican assembly reps, that result has given Democrats hope that they can gain between one and three seats in the Nevada Assembly in November. If that happens, their 27-15 margin will grow, they’ll have a majority, and they’ll end up with the more than 28 seats needed for a supermajority, i.e. the number needed to override a veto by Republican governor Jim Gibbons.
Which in light of the tax-hiking tendencies of Assembly Democrats would be very bad news for Nevadans.
Republican strategists I’ve spoken to seem to think the GOP can hold onto those seats, and I hope they’re right. The man who defeated Marvel, Don Gustavson (District 32), is pretty well known so there’s a fair degree of confidence he can hold down his corner of the fort. People don’t seem quite as sure that Francis Allen’s nemesis, Richard McCarthur (District 4), and the guy who beat Bob “Lite” Beers, Jon Ozark (District 21), can do the same in a year that is shaping up to be very competitive.
With 10 of 21 state Senate seats and all 42 Assembly seats up for grabs here in the Battle Born State, it’s going to be an interesting election night in more ways than one.