E!!

On the subject of delegates to the Republican national convention, a few readers (who don’t normally follow politics but are now perking up) have asked me what the stats from Nevada’s state caucuses were.  You can view them here. 

Romney got 51.1% of the vote; Ron Paul got 14.73%; and McCain got 13.75%.

Confession:

I love to predict political outcomes but so far have lacked the courage to post them on E!!  Today, I shed the shackles of fear and take a stand with some predictions…

Obama’s VP pick will be Evan Bayh.

McCain’s VP pick will be Romney (who will run in 2012 when McCain decides one term was enough).

McCain-Romney will win easily in November.

Hillary will win her party’s nominiation in 2012 after saying something like this to the Dems, “Hey Dummies!  Your arugula-eating, Maxim reading, Harvard grad Golden Boy got stomped in ’08, so stop messing around and nominate me.”

Excerpts from Howey Politics:

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday…

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama’s solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll…

The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia’s invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views…

The dip in support for Obama…cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters.

“There were no wild swings, there isn’t one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board,” Zogby said.

Laura Ingraham played Obama’s “I don’t plan on losing.  McCain doesn’t know what he’s up against…” audio clip on her show this morning.  

He sounded like a nervous kid trying to act Tough so he could fend off the bullies.  And was not convincing.  Obama just isn’t manly enough to deliver a line like that.

He cannot give hesitant, stuttering, “introspective, nuanced” answers in these various political forums and then switch to tough-sounding “don’t mess with me” rhetoric and expect to be taken seriously.  He just ends up seeming…ridiculous.

See Nevada Republican Party Chairman Sue Lowdon’s blog for the list of delegates and alternates that will go to the National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul.  She notes the delegation will be traveling with a Nevada-based POW from Sparks, Bill Elander, who, like Senator McCain, spent time at the Hanoi Hilton.

Lowdon:  ”In the end, I believe Nevadans agree that the path to prosperity now is as important as it was a quarter century ago, when Ronald Reagan advocated for peace through strength, lower taxes on our workers and businesses, and free-market principles to encourage ingenuity, economic growth, improved consumer goods and lower prices. This election, all of those same issues are up for grabs, and I believe Nevadans will help elect Senator John McCain as our next President.”

Those acquainted with me pre-E!! know I was a Fred Thompson supporter before he dropped out of the presidential race.  I believed then (and still think) he was the most reliably Conservative of all the GOP candidates in all the areas that matter most. 

One of my favorite things about Fred was that he wasn’t overtly enthusiastic about getting The Job.  This annoyed a lot of people and probably cost him a spot in the top 3, but I considered his reserve – i.e. his lack of zeal for politicking - a big plus.  It was (and will continue to be) my contention that our pick should always be the man most qualified to lead but least lustful for power and the public eye.

Thompson’s analysis on the Russian invasion of Georgia and other international issues today is just excellent.  Be sure to read his conclusion, with which I thoroughly agree and would add:  the White House driveway is a dangerous place for Obama to practice his driving skills. 

This morning on the drive to work, I heard Heidi Harris say (on talk radio KXNT) that Obama will be opening four more campaign offices in Las Vegas this week.  Not surprising now that McCain has a slight edge in the polls.

The good news for the Dems is their voter registration edge of about 60,000, many of whom were signed up by the Obama campaign in recent months.  In addition, the Las Vegas Sun reports that the Dems have trained 600 new precinct leaders in addition to the 1,000+ who were trained for the caucuses.

The bad news for Obama is that he has to overcome the senate’s most liberal voting record in a state that is unwaveringly pro-gun and has a deep aversion to tax hikes.  He’s also got a problem in re: to energy because the majority of Nevadans – in both parties – support creating more energy (drill, drill, drill) vs. cutting consumption.

The question is:  will those extra voter registrations and the opening of these new campaign offices make a difference for Obama in November – and should the NV GOP follow suit?

Republicans tend to be more reliable voters, so the GOP doesn’t always have to work as hard to get their peeps to the polls.  With numbers this close, though, McCain’s people may want to take a page from the 2004 Bush-Cheney playbook.  The Republican ground operation in Nevada was huge and Kerry was defeated by 21,500 votes.

Not sure that’s going to happen, though.  The McCain campaign seems to be focusing more on Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan — states with larger numbers of electoral votes than Nevada – I guess thinking that if they can win 2 out of 3, they can win the whole enchilada.

Obama seems to be taking a different approach:  grabbing enough (other) Bush states such that losses in the big Midwestern states won’t mean as much.  Clearly, Nevada is one he wants in the bag.

Rasmussen now has McCain 45% vs. Obama @ 42% in Nevada.  See their chart (below) to see the gains and losses since February.

How big is Nevada for the candidates?  Politicker’s Pindell Report lists Nevada as the most competitive (closest) toss up state in the nation.

Rasmussen reminds us that Nevada has cast its five Electoral College votes for the winning candidate in seven straight presidential elections. And the last four of these were very competitive with nobody carrying the state by more than four percent of the popular vote.

This year is shaping up to be another squeaker – for somebody. 

Just read this Comment from a reader (“Monte” of Portland, OR) on Ann Coulter’s column today:

Here’s a gem from Mark Hemingway, one of my faves @ NRO:

Paranoid much?   

I see that Rick Perlstein isn’t just under the impression that McCain’s “Celeb” ad is racist, but also that it’s a deliberate attempt to invoke comparisons between Obama and Hitler, and was even shot to look just like Triumph of the Will — “I actually wonder if the Republicans had a crew on the scene to capture just the right angles,” Perlstein says.

I would say something about how pathetic and silly this is, but Ross Douthat beat me to the punch:

Here’s a tip for liberals: If your candidate is going to stage enormous rallies in front of tens of thousands of chanting Germans (with monuments to Prussian military might in the background) in the middle of his Presidential campaign, it isn’t the GOP’s fault if the footage comes out looking a little like Hitler at Nuremberg.

This McCain campaign ad is a must see.  LOL

It’s no secret that I’m not a big fan of John McCain – but for those in northern NV who would like to see him in person…he will be hosting a Town Hall meeting this Tuesday, July 29th at Reed High School in Sparks. The doors will open at 8:00 am.  To RSVP for the event, click here or call (702) 425-2299. The campaign staff says no confirmation or reply is needed to attend the event.

As reported by the Nevada Appeal here, about 90,500 Nevadans were out of work in June.  Our unemployment rate climbed to 6.4 percent - the highest level in more than 14 years.

Though this is bad for many residents of the state, it may be good news for Conservatives who worry that Nevada may turn Blue on this November’s electoral map.  As jobs stay scarce, businesses struggle to make payroll, and gas prices stay high, fiscal conservatism – including the desire for balanced budgets and lower taxes - will (should!) sieze the hearts and minds of those who might otherwise swing Left in both the state and national elections this fall…IF conservative candidates can convince constituents they stand for these values.

In re: to my comments and questions about voting Independent/Libertarian vs. Republican this fall, reader Nicky Cheese made these comments:

I’ve never bought into that “spoiler” rhetoric. More choices are better than less, no? 

Individuals ought to vote for the candidate they believe best represents them. A vote is a reflection of one’s values. Utilize the full range of potential choices in order to affirm what is closest to your values.

Movements are long-term.

More choices are better than less.  But is it really a “choice” when we don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of actually getting what we chose?  If a vote for Barr or Paul still gets us McCain or Obama, as we all know it does, what good was our principled selection?

And is the spoiler argument really just rhetoric?  In the Bush/Gore contest, Gore lost Florida (and the whole enchilada) because of the votes that went to Nader.  No doubt the Naderites were “voting their values.”  But what about the prudence of picking what’s better when you can’t have what’s Best?  I’d sure like to ask those Nader voters what they’d choose if they had a Do-Over. 

The argument that gives me greater pause – i.e. that I think is more compelling – is that of long-term vs. short-term thinking.  As we consider the coming decades, what will best stop our slide to the Left and the disturbing hyper-expansion of the State? 

Do we stand on principle and vote ultra-conservative or libertarian every two years, win or lose, with the hope of steering the GOP to the right and/or bolstering what might someday become a viable Third Party?  And if we don’t, what will compel anyone to consider our cause?

Please chime in and pass along this post so we can hear from more folks.  I’ll post the best remarks up front to spark further discussion!

Have you heard about the defiant posse of disillusioned GOP-ers that held an unsanctioned state convention in Reno this past Saturday? Organizers claim it was a lawful reconvening of the GOP’s recessed April 26 state convention in Reno (which was shut down prior to final voting). However, the party’s executive committee has set (and stuck by) a July 26 date to resume activity.

Depending on who you ask, the late April shut down was either (1) a tragedy of epic proportions because it was shaping up to be a national delegation with more backers for Ron Paul than John McCain, or (2) a proper procedural response because there were too few delegates to call a quorum (because the promised Ron Paul reps did not actually materialize on the convention floor).

State rules say roughly 800 total delegates are needed in order to obtain a convention quorum. We didn’t have them in April, and we didn’t have them this weekend either because the Ron Paul reps barely numbered 300. (And just for extra fun, we’re not sure how many of those delegates were credentialed since Paul organizers didn’t have the official delegate List with which to cross-reference attendees.)

Depending on who you ask, the Ron Paul backers (1) asked the GOP for the List and were refused, or (2) did not follow the proper procedure for obtaining the List.

Any-hoo, this weekend’s gathering of 327 was a pretty poor showing considering the Paul camp claims that they had “over 1,000” delegates teed up. Their response? The April convention did not have a quorum and was invalid – but this one counts because this weekend’s first order of business was to change the rules of quorum and (you guessed it) decide that 327 delegates was enough.

Ron Paul devotees say they will take their fight to be recognized as The Legitimate Convention all the way to September’s Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul and that they will appeal their case to the RNC and/or national convention committee. Many Paul backers have also said they will cast a write-in vote for the Texas congressman in November because McCain is closer to being a Democrat than a conservative.

They have my sympathy, as far as that goes, but all this Brouhaha brings us round to a familiar electoral quandary. Do you cast a principled vote for an Independent candidate who is closer to your (and your party’s) values but could also be the “spoiler” that leads to the election of the opposition? Or do you compromise and go with the safer bet to ensure we maintain at least some semblance of sanity in the White House?

In a swing state where President Bush narrowly won in 2000 and 2004, your decision could play heavily in the national election.

Your comments are welcome, because I’m still undecided myself.